"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those rather than parlays. Some of you may not understand how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, combined with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and when it wins you then place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the first team, and when it wins you bet double on the next team. With a genuine "if" bet, rather than betting double on the next team, you bet an equal amount on the second team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you need to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can also be made on two games kicking off simultaneously. The bookmaker will wait before first game is over. If the first game wins, he'll put an equal amount on the second game though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is really two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the second bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the second game has not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you will have action on the next game. Because of this, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. Once the two games you bet overlap with time, however, the only method to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the next game bet is not an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at differing times, most books will not allow you to fill in the second game later. You need to designate both teams once you make the bet.
You possibly can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I want to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the next team. No matter whether the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 once you lose on the initial team. If the first team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. In that case, if the next team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a complete win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" would be $110, and the maximum win will be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, rather than just $10 of vig, every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. If you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. In the event that you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This type of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you need to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. Both "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also function as same as in the event that you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You would lose $55 on each of the bets for a total maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Instead of losing $110 when the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 once the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It computes this way. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second combination of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the second combination for the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller loss of $60 rather than $110 when the first team loses with no reduction in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it does have the advantage of making the chance more predictable, and avoiding the worry concerning which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and simply write down the rules. I'll summarize the guidelines in an easy to copy list in my own next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win a lot more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting using one should not be made dependent on whether or not you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he could be not betting the second game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Remember that the next time someone lets you know that the best way to win is to bet fewer games. A good winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by a winner with a positive expectation in mere two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of which you have no other choice is if you're the best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux so you left it in the automobile, you only bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap in time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your head up high, put a smile on your own face, search for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Needless to say you can bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is a good substitute for the parlay when you are winner.
For the winner, the best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the fact that we make the next bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig regardless of how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As bk8 've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations will come in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it is more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will beneath the total. As we have already seen, if you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The actual possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines privately and total are one to the other, but the proven fact that they are co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet compared to the parlay when making our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely need to win one from the two. Each of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we are in need of is a 72% probability that whenever, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the total 53 � at least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point away from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of that time period is not an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
Compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a total increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."