There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people who have parlays. They'll tout win rates much like probably the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, so as to they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On many of these sites you may even have the privilege of working with some kind of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that you will find the majority of these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the truth that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is really a fairly raised percentage. Lots of table games and slots provide a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing some dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. Additionally, there are steps that can be taken to decrease the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more consistent with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome over time. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is actually pleased to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest number of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the house minimum. Simply because most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they can make any real cash by placing $25-50 on a few games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the finish of the season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it really is my experience that a lot of bettors usually do not place just one single parlay per week. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are put during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with this type of high house edge. For instance, for anyone who is placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. As the amount of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had a client who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. game st666 managed to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will help in the end. First of all, the best value of most parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you should understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you're going to make this investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always make it 6 and even 10. The difference between your house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is about 10 points less than all three of these bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.