The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a bigger advantage over you once you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, but they are not. They believe they can win more with parlays, however they cannot. The bigger win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less possibility of collecting.
A parlay is not a single bet. It really is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose no matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to possess been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case of a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon whether the first game won or lost. That adds some luck to your betting that doesn't must be there. The skilled handicapper is always wanting to make smart investments. He tries to get rid of the effect of luck to the best extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as you possibly can.
Much like every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a new player to consistently parlay the initial half with the overall game. The player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the game, and the under in the initial half with under in the overall game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Jun88.ong won he'd win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the ball player would win $260 and lose $100 on another parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he'd lose $200.
At first glance, this appeared to be a great opportunity for the book. The normal coin-flip odds of winning one parlay out of your two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half the time, and losing $200 half enough time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after 6 months, and the book began to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that the two halves of every parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the first half, the bettor was almost never in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The overall game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. By the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a total of 52 first-half points. The initial half of one of the parlays, the "over" in the initial half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the game weren't 50-50 but much better than 99% in favor of the "over." The player only had a need to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money rather than just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to try this, be aware that most off-shore books are far too smart to allow you to parlay first half to game. Should they do let you do this, start worrying about collecting because that book will soon be taken to the cleaners.
There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that can still be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the side and total in exactly the same game.
Any game in which the total is less than double the spread can provide you an advantage in parlaying side to total in exactly the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and increase your win with hardly any increase in risk. Such a bet, however, needed that you have an opinion on the side or the total. Parlaying is another solution to boost your potential win on these games, or even to create a potential win if you have no opinion.
There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a total of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you were to think that Virginia will cover the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the overall game will go over the full total. The much more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the more likely it becomes that the game will go over 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the more likely the game will go over. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will never be shut out, in that case your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is not as likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. Therefore, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.
In case you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total would be to the spread privately, the better win-rate will undoubtedly be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays is not as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books wouldn't normally allow such bets), but you will find a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will allow you to parlay the medial side to the full total in the same game, because a growing number of are realizing that these bets are sometimes co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets for you to consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.